Now that every average middle class is celebrating the initiative of demonetization keeping in mind long term benefits I am not sure if they have thought about the following scenario. I am sure at least 50% to 60% of the salaried middle class would have invested their hard earned savings in land/flats etc. I am sure by all practical scenario this industry was dominated by 25-30% cash transaction which significantly determined the Market Price of the property.
With this new initiative since existing 500 /1000 Rs reserves are abolished the demand created by this excess cash in the market shall have serious impact on market prices of the properties.
Lets assume an average salaried middle class has invested 25 lakhs -30 lakhs in a land or a flat based on market rate @ Rs 1000 /SFT. In that Rs 1000 /SFT ,25%-30% of that demand is purely created by cash transactions and henceforth this shall be significantly reduced as reduced cash flow.
The net value of his/her proper shall go down by 25% to 30% when he or she even wants to sell for an emergency.
On the other side if the bank has given loan assuming market value as 30 lakhs and 70% is granted the customer is paying interest for a property which has no return at all and banks value of the property is also diminished .
Since this is loan against property for the banks the net value of the bank asset also comes down.
With real estate already being in a sluggish mode this shall have very serious impact on Demand & Supply and middle class who has saved and invested in the last 5-10 years.
In a 1.2 billion populated economy in which highly diversified direct and indirect factors driving the country’s economy its not easy to connect the dots and see the predictable nature of this initiative . Even the best of the financial analyst cannot curb inflation by multiple moves at crucial time though we all know the standard measures that were taken by that time.This economy is so diverse and we cant connect all dots to see a pattern here.My question is as a country are we prepared for this at this time of global economic scenario.
I just wanted people to think about this too and connect the dots in this move rather than just be emotional about it.
The question here is not about courage or is it a great initiative or not. Definitely it is !
On the individual front people like me have more rights to celebrate this move as a tax payer who has only submitted original bills till now as salaried employee every year and paid full tax even when we were mocked/ridiculed by peers for being so honest.
My question is will it eradicate the intended corrupted or collapse the genuine middle class sweat earned wealth?
I am waiting to see the real state of the initiative…